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De Graafschap vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MVV
MVV
T. van Gilst 71'
A. Yadir 65'
Jeffry Fortes 35'
4/26/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 36Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

De Graafschap68%
×Draw17%
MVV14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.51
MVV
1.06

De Graafschap creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.44
MVV
0.85

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.28
MVV
2.59

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less
MVV-0.42scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
86%
De Graafschap or MVV
83%
Draw or MVV
32%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
46%
MVV wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
92%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
71%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
45%
MVV 1+ goals
65%
MVV 2+ goals
29%
MVV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
83%
MVV (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

MVV away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + MVV defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.51

MVV attack 0.85 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

De Graafschap scores more
68%
level
17%
MVV scores more
14%

De Graafschap at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
B. ÖnalDe GraafschapDe Graafschap · F
8.5

Match Events

29'
T. van Gilst← S. Colyn
35'
Jeffry Fortes↳ B. Önal
46'
M. Remans← F. Slegers
61'
Alexander Büttner
64'
A. Yadir← S. Wevers
64'
D. Flakus Bosilj← D. Haen
65'
A. Yadir↳ D. Warmerdam
71'
T. van Gilst↳ A. Yadir
75'
B. Smeets← N. El Basri
76'
T. Zeegers← A. Librici
76'
C. Mmaee← Dailon Livramento
84'
L. Schoppema← B. Önal
84'
O. Raterink← D. Warmerdam
85'
S. Penders← M. Kleinen

Possession

51%De

Shots

12De

Pass accuracy

52%De

Statistics

DeMVV
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots10
1Corners2
6Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target3
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
464Total Passes459
396Accurate Passes368
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides4

Eerste Divisie: De Graafschap 3–0 MVV

De Graafschap beat MVV 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Jeffry Fortes (35'), A. Yadir (65'), T. van Gilst (71').

De Graafschap controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.