De Graafschap 0–1 MVV: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

MVV

J. Pawirodihardjo 89'

8/22/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 3De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

De Graafschap68%

×Draw17%

MVV14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchMVV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.06

De Graafschap

2.51

MVV

1.06

De Graafschap creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.44

creates per match

0.85

1.28

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

De Graafschap

2.44

MVV

0.85

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.28

MVV

2.59

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less

MVV-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

MVV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

86%

De Graafschap or MVV

83%

Draw or MVV

32%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

46%

MVV wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

92%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

71%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

45%

MVV 1+ goals

65%

MVV 2+ goals

29%

MVV 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

83%

MVV (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

MVV away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + MVV defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.51

MVV attack 0.85 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

De Graafschap scores more

68%

level

17%

MVV scores more

14%

De Graafschap at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Westerveld

MVV · G

9.2

Match Events

57'

Lars Schenk

59'

Lenn-Minh Tran

64'

D. Asante← I. Silva Timas

65'

Arjen Van Der Heide

65'

F. Slegers← N. El Basri

71'

J. Simons← D. Theodoridis

79'

J. Meerstadt← M. Smits

79'

K. Symons← L. Schoppema

79'

N. Kaninda← A. van der Heide

79'

M. van Kempen← L. Schenk

79'

J. Pawirodihardjo← S. Braken

89'

J. Pawirodihardjo

90'

B. Boersma← T. Kok

90+1'

A. Zaian← M. Kuipers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeMVV

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots12

7Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots12

5On Target4

10Off Target4

7Blocked4

14Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

542Total Passes344

472Accurate Passes264

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0