Mushuc Runa SC 1–4 Independiente del Valle

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Independiente del Valle

E. Davila 66'

M. Perello 90'

D. Reasco 49', 19'

J. Sornoza 35'

7/11/2026

Liga Pro · Round 18Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC26%

×Draw24%

Independiente del Valle49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.65

Mushuc Runa SC

1.13

Independiente del Valle

1.65

Independiente del Valle creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

2.00

1.30

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.47

Independiente del Valle

2.00

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.30

Independiente del Valle

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

51%

Mushuc Runa SC or Independiente del Valle

76%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

74%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

10%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

68%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

31%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

11%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

81%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

49%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

35%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.47 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.13

Independiente del Valle attack 2.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

26%

level

24%

Independiente del Valle scores more

49%

Independiente del Valle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

35'

44'

49'

56'

58'

E. Caicedo← C. Angulo

58'

A. Zambrano← J. Gonzalez

63'

D. Guagua← J. Sornoza

64'

H. Quintana← R. Briones

64'

M. Perello← A. Rodriguez

66'

E. Davila

74'

J. Mendez

76'

J. Cusme← J. Hernandez

76'

D. Merino← R. Carrillo

76'

J. Alcivar← J. Mendez

76'

E. Quintero← E. Pata

85'

J. L. Mancilla Quinones

88'

F. Carabali← R. Ibarra

90'

M. Perello

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MushucIndependiente

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots14

3Corners3

3Fouls2

Shots

5Total Shots14

0On Target7

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

2Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

202Total Passes207

175Accurate Passes182

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

3Fouls2

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1