Independiente del Valle 3–1 Mushuc Runa SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mushuc Runa SC

J. Angulo 90'

M. Perello 89'

E. Pata 42'

K. Velasco 2'

3/7/2026

Liga Pro · Round 3Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Independiente del Valle56%

×Draw24%

Mushuc Runa SC19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Independiente del Valle

1.69

Mushuc Runa SC

0.88

Independiente del Valle creates 92% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.73

Mushuc Runa SC

1.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.76

Mushuc Runa SC

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

81%

Independiente del Valle or Mushuc Runa SC

76%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

44%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

31%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

82%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

50%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

24%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

59%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

22%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

74%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.73 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

56%

level

24%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

19%

Independiente del Valle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Carabajal

Independiente del Valle · D

8.2

Match Events

2'

32'

42'

45+4'

45+4'

47'

62'

69'

69'

69'

Cristopher AnguloCard upgrade

75'

D. Reasco← D. A. Romero Padilla

75'

J. Mendez← J. P. Arroyo

75'

M. Perello← C. Gonzalez

75'

T. Minda← R. Carrillo

75'

F. Flor← L. Lemos

75'

J. Gonzalez← F. Mina

80'

A. Rodriguez← E. Pata

88'

J. Angulo← P. Mercado

89'

M. Perello↳ A. Rodriguez

90+3'

Jackson González

90+6'

E. Caicedo← E. Davila

90'

J. Angulo↳ D. Reasco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteMushuc

Overview

73%Possession27%

22Total Shots7

7Corners3

5Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots7

4On Target3

10Off Target3

8Blocked1

10Inside Box3

12Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

529Total Passes198

489Accurate Passes139

92%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards2