Independiente del Valle 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

C. Spinelli 19'

8/13/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Banco De Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente del Valle35%

×Draw31%

Mushuc Runa SC35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.00

Mushuc Runa SC

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.50

Mushuc Runa SC

1.25

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.75

Mushuc Runa SC

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

65%

Independiente del Valle or Mushuc Runa SC

69%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

65%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

13%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

63%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

26%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

8%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

63%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

26%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

50%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.25 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

35%

level

31%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

35%

Independiente del Valle at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

G. Cortez

Independiente del Valle · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Patrik Mercado

19'

C. Spinelli↳ P. Mercado

21'

Glendys Mina

30'

Ángel Gracia

46'

R. Burbano← J. Verges

56'

Mateo Carabajal

62'

R. Ibarra← P. Mercado

65'

Steven Tapiero

71'

Robert Burbano

71'

C. Penilla← G. Mina

72'

W. J. Chala Rosales← A. Gracia

82'

B. Delgado← C. Orejuela

83'

83'

83'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteMushuc

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots10

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.55

9Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots10

6On Target4

8Off Target6

6Blocked0

12Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

506Total Passes307

435Accurate Passes222

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2