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Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
10/5/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC35%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.30
Independiente del Valle
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 133 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
61%
Mushuc Runa SC or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
65%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
15%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
73%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
37%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
14%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
75%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
41%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
47%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
35%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
39%

Independiente del Valle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle

Mushuc Runa SC and Independiente del Valle drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa in Ambato.