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Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle — Copa Ecuador 2022

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valleadvanced
Unknown 90+1'
S. Giordana 28'
Unknown 77', 68'
J. Bauman 48'
L. Diaz 18'
8/25/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 2Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC25%
×Draw22%
Independiente del Valle53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.32
Independiente del Valle
2.01

Independiente del Valle creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.83
Independiente del Valle
2.36

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.67
Independiente del Valle
0.82

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
47%
Mushuc Runa SC or Independiente del Valle
78%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
75%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
11%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
73%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
38%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
15%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
87%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
59%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
32%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.83 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Independiente del Valle attack 2.36 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
25%
level
22%
Independiente del Valle scores more
53%

Independiente del Valle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Diaz
28'
S. Giordana
48'
J. Bauman
68'
77'
85'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: Mushuc Runa SC 2–4 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Mushuc Runa SC 4-2 in Copa Ecuador on August 25, 2022.

Goals: L. Diaz (18'), S. Giordana (28'), J. Bauman (48'), ? (68', 77', 90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.