Mushuc Runa SC 3–2 Independiente del Valle

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Independiente del Valle

F. Faría 87'

J. Govea 45+1'

J. Angulo 15'

C. Ortiz 27'

C. Pellerano 14' (pen)

10/14/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 1Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC28%

×Draw28%

Independiente del Valle44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.32

Mushuc Runa SC

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.32

Independiente del Valle creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

1.78

0.87

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Independiente del Valle

1.78

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Independiente del Valle

0.84

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Independiente del Valle+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

56%

Mushuc Runa SC or Independiente del Valle

72%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

72%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

10%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

63%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

26%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

8%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

73%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

38%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

39%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

28%

level

28%

Independiente del Valle scores more

44%

Independiente del Valle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. PelleranoPenalty

15'

J. Angulo↳ I. Herrera

27'

30'

39'

45+5'

45+1'

58'

60'

65'

J. Murillo← D. Leiton

66'

C. Angulo← F. Guerrero

72'

G. Mina← J. Mendoza

74'

B. García← C. Ortiz

80'

E. de la Cruz← J. Angulo

80'

F. Faría← I. Herrera

81'

F. Borja← E. Mera

85'

D. Bone← H. Orzán

87'

F. Faría↳ E. de la Cruz

Mushuc

Independiente

1

Ramírez

15

Caicedo

51

Pacho

23

▼

Guerrero

16

⚽

Pellerano

10

▼

Mera

21

Rivero

52

Ortíz

54

▼

Leiton

20

⚽

▼

6

21

27

20

3

▼

Mendoza

24

Gómez

15

Mosquera

17

⚽

▼

Angulo

4

▼

Orzán

9

Orlando

11

A

▼

Herrera

10

⚽

Govea

Manager: R. Dillon

72'▲G. Mina←▼J. Mendoza

80'▲E. de la Cruz←▼J. Angulo

80'▲F. Faría←▼I. Herrera

85'▲D. Bone←▼H. Orzán

Mushuc Runa SC substitutes

8Mina33Cruz32Faría7Bone50Rueda1Brun23Incorvaia13Carrasco70Castillo19Carabalí6Méndez

Manager: Miguel Ángel Ramírez

65'▲J. Murillo←▼D. Leiton

66'▲C. Angulo←▼F. Guerrero

74'▲B. García←▼C. Ortiz

81'▲F. Borja←▼E. Mera

Independiente del Valle substitutes

18Murillo59Angulo56García57Borja58Delgado30Pinos14Mena53Chávez