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Mushuc Runa SC vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2018

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
9/14/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 25Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC63%
×Draw21%
Fuerza Amarilla16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
2.05
Fuerza Amarilla
0.92

Mushuc Runa SC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
Fuerza Amarilla
0.60

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
Fuerza Amarilla
2.67

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
84%
Mushuc Runa SC or Fuerza Amarilla
79%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
37%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
39%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
87%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
61%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
33%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
60%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
23%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
80%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
63%
level
21%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
16%

Mushuc Runa SC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 3–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Mushuc Runa SC beat Fuerza Amarilla 3-0 in Liga Pro on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato).