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Mushuc Runa SC vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
10/10/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 36Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC50%
×Draw28%
Fuerza Amarilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.33
Fuerza Amarilla
0.76

Mushuc Runa SC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.64
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
0.64
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
79%
Mushuc Runa SC or Fuerza Amarilla
72%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
50%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
24%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
74%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
38%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
15%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
53%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
18%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
70%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.64 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
50%
level
28%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
21%

Mushuc Runa SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Mushuc Runa SC beat Fuerza Amarilla 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato).