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Fuerza Amarilla vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
4/21/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 10Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla34%
×Draw24%
Mushuc Runa SC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.42
Mushuc Runa SC
1.61

Mushuc Runa SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 117 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
58%
Fuerza Amarilla or Mushuc Runa SC
76%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
66%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
15%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
76%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
41%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
17%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
80%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
48%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
45%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
34%
level
24%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
42%

Mushuc Runa SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Fuerza Amarilla 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat Fuerza Amarilla 2-1 in Liga Pro on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.