Mushuc Runa SC 0–0 Aucas: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aucas

5/31/2026

Liga Pro · Round 16Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC42%

×Draw28%

Aucas30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Mushuc Runa SC

1.27

Aucas

1.03

Mushuc Runa SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.16

creates per match

1.19

0.87

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Aucas

1.37

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

70%

Mushuc Runa SC or Aucas

72%

Draw or Aucas

58%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

19%

Aucas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

72%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

36%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

14%

Aucas 1+ goals

64%

Aucas 2+ goals

28%

Aucas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

58%

Aucas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aucas attack 1.19 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

42%

level

28%

Aucas scores more

30%

Mushuc Runa SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Formento

Mushuc Runa SC · G

8.0

Match Events

8'

9'

35'

35'

45+4'

45+4'

63'

Jackson GonzálezPenalty cancelled

65'

71'

75'

80'

81'

L. Arroyo← E. Preciado

81'

D. S. Espinosa← S. Porozo

81'

R. Bolanos← P. Guzman

90'

Jackson González

90'

Jackson González

90'

T. Minda← R. Ibarra

90+5'

L. Lemos←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucAucas

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots14

4Corners6

6Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target3

4Off Target6

5Blocked5

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

389Total Passes349

333Accurate Passes295

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 0–0 Aucas

Mushuc Runa SC and Aucas drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on May 31, 2026.

Mushuc Runa SC controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa in Ambato.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 0–0 Aucas