Aucas vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Aucas50%
Mushuc Runa SC22%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aucas creates 71% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aucas ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aucas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.70 · 8 matches
Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aucas attack 1.36 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32
Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Aucas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Aucas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
MacaraAucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SC
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Aucas host Mushuc Runa SC on Sunday, 15 September 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Aucas vs Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC beat Aucas 2-1 in Liga Pro on September 15, 2024.
Goals: M. Acuña (76' pen), C. Rolón (88'), S. Tapiero (90+3').
Aucas controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.