Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aucas vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Aucas
Aucas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
U. Ciccioli 90'
B. Montenegro 45'
4/27/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 10Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Aucas50%
×Draw29%
Mushuc Runa SC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.32
Mushuc Runa SC
0.77

Aucas creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.36
Mushuc Runa SC
0.85

allows per match

Aucas
0.70
Mushuc Runa SC
1.28

finishing

Aucas+1.14scores more
Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
78%
Aucas or Mushuc Runa SC
71%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
50%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
23%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
73%
Aucas 2+ goals
38%
Aucas 3+ goals
15%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
54%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
18%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
69%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.70 · 8 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.36 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Aucas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aucas scores more
50%
level
29%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
22%

Aucas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. A. Carcelen CarabaliAucasAucas · M
8.9

Match Events

6'
J. Parrales← D. Quintero
35'
Ronald Briones
39'
Estalin Segura
45'
B. Montenegro↳ J. Mina
46'
R. Simisterra← C. Orejuela
46'
M. Alonso← Bryan Angulo
50'
Bryan Bentaberry
62'
B. Delgado← G. Mina
71'
M. A. Carcelen Carabali← J. Vazquez
76'
Jerry Parrales
79'
Angelo Mina
79'
T. Serpa← A. Mina
80'
M. Rigoleto← S. Tapiero
90+8'
Matías RigoletoPenalty cancelled
90+3'
C. Zambrano← R. Briones
90'
U. Ciccioli↳ M. A. Carcelen Carabali

Possession

54%Aucas

Shots

25Aucas

Pass accuracy

54%Aucas

Statistics

AucasMushuc
Overview
54%Possession46%
25Total Shots17
6Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
25Total Shots17
11On Target6
13Off Target5
1Blocked6
14Inside Box10
11Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
292Total Passes242
203Accurate Passes144
70%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
6Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Liga Pro: Aucas 2–0 Mushuc Runa SC

Aucas beat Mushuc Runa SC 2-0 in Liga Pro on April 27, 2025.

Goals: B. Montenegro (45'), U. Ciccioli (90').

Aucas controlled possession (54%) and registered 25 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.