1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

1899 Hoffenheim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Nurnberg

A. Kramarić 78', 25' (pen)

H. Behrens 61'

3/10/2019

Bundesliga · Round 25WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim57%

×Draw21%

FC Nurnberg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1899 HoffenheimExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.19

1899 Hoffenheim

2.04

FC Nurnberg

1.19

1899 Hoffenheim creates 71% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 26 away

1.78

creates per match

0.81

1.56

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim

1.78

FC Nurnberg

0.81

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim

1.56

FC Nurnberg

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim or draw

78%

1899 Hoffenheim or FC Nurnberg

79%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

43%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

34%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

87%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

60%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

33%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

70%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

33%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

72%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 118 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.78 + FC Nurnberg defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Nurnberg attack 0.81 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

57%

level

21%

FC Nurnberg scores more

22%

1899 Hoffenheim at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Kramarić

1899 Hoffenheim · F

8.6

Match Events

15'

Stefan Posch

24'

Patrick Erras

25'

A. KramarićPenalty

38'

R. Bauer← S. Kerk

52'

T. Tillman← E. Valentini

61'

H. Behrens↳ M. Ishak

69'

Á. Szalai← S. Posch

72'

L. Bittencourt← N. Amiri

76'

78'

79'

86'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1899FC

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots11

8Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target5

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

601Total Passes349

512Accurate Passes257

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2