1899 Hoffenheim 2–5 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

1899 Hoffenheim

FT

2 – 5

FC Nurnberg

8/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Birkenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim25%

×Draw17%

FC Nurnberg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1899 HoffenheimExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

3.35

1899 Hoffenheim

2.25

FC Nurnberg

3.35

FC Nurnberg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

3.22

creates per match

3.71

3.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim

3.22

FC Nurnberg

3.71

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim

3.00

FC Nurnberg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim or draw

42%

1899 Hoffenheim or FC Nurnberg

83%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

75%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

13%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

89%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

65%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

39%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

96%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

84%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

30%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim at home — creates 3.22, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 3.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim attack 3.22 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Nurnberg attack 3.71 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

25%

level

17%

FC Nurnberg scores more

58%

FC Nurnberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff