1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg: Result & Stats

1899 Hoffenheim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

1. FC Nürnberg

Arthur Chaves 71'

H. Tabaković 27'

M. Emreli 47'

10/30/2024

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundPreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim43%

×Draw21%

1. FC Nürnberg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1899 HoffenheimExpected goals in this match1. FC Nürnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.88

1899 Hoffenheim

2.06

1. FC Nürnberg

1.88

1899 Hoffenheim creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

3.25

creates per match

2.00

1.75

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim

3.25

1. FC Nürnberg

2.00

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim

1.75

1. FC Nürnberg

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim or draw

64%

1899 Hoffenheim or 1. FC Nürnberg

79%

Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg

57%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

24%

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

87%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

61%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

34%

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

85%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

56%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

54%

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim attack 3.25 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

1. FC Nürnberg attack 2.00 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

43%

level

21%

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

36%

1899 Hoffenheim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

U. Tohumcu

1899 Hoffenheim · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

27'

30'

34'

37'

47'

M. Emreli↳ J. Justvan

62'

A. Kramarić← M. Bülter

70'

L. Schleimer← S. Tzimas

71'

Arthur Chaves↳ U. Tohumcu

72'

T. Bischof← F. Grillitsch

73'

M. Berisha← A. Hložek

82'

J. Hofmann← O. Villadsen

82'

R. Lubach← M. Emreli

84'

T. Drexler← A. Stach

85'

T. Duman← J. Castrop

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

18991.

Overview

50%Possession50%

23Total Shots15

10Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots15

10On Target5

5Off Target4

8Blocked6

17Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

436Total Passes437

359Accurate Passes368

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1