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Mumbai City vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Goa
Goa
L. Chhangte 90+7' (pen)
Borja Herrera 64'
Iker Guarrotxena 41', 24'
2/12/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 22Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mumbai City38%
×Draw29%
Goa33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
1.16
Goa
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
1.39
Goa
1.25

allows per match

Mumbai City
0.90
Goa
0.93

finishing

Mumbai City-0.19scores less
Goa-0.05on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
67%
Mumbai City or Goa
71%
Draw or Goa
62%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
16%
Goa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
69%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
32%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
11%
Goa 1+ goals
66%
Goa 2+ goals
29%
Goa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
53%
Goa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 5 matches

Goa away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.39 + Goa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Goa attack 1.25 + Mumbai City defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mumbai City scores more
38%
level
29%
Goa scores more
33%

Mumbai City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
Iker GuarrotxenaGoaGoa · F
9.3

Match Events

24'
Iker Guarrotxena
41'
Iker Guarrotxena↳ U. Singh
43'
Boris Singh
54'
M. Yasir← B. Fernandes
62'
A. Chhikara← V. Partap Singh
62'
J. Rane← B. Fernandes
64'
Borja Herrera
67'
Borja Herrera
80'
Mohammad Yasir
87'
S. Fernandes← U. Singh
87'
S. Tavora← A. Chhetri
87'
D. Dražić← Borja Herrera
90+5'
Hrithik Tiwari
90'
A. Sadiku← Iker Guarrotxena
90+7'
L. ChhangtePenalty

Possession

61%Mumbai

Shots

12Mumbai

Pass accuracy

51%Mumbai

Statistics

MumbaiGoa
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots13
3Corners3
7Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots13
6On Target3
4Off Target7
2Blocked3
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
599Total Passes377
520Accurate Passes311
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Mumbai City vs Goa

Goa beat Mumbai City 3-1 in Indian Super League on February 12, 2025.

Goals: Iker Guarrotxena (24', 41'), Borja Herrera (64'), L. Chhangte (90+7' pen).

Mumbai City controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Mumbai Football Arena in Mumbai.