Mumbai City 2–0 Goa: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goa

L. Chhangte 83'

J. Pereyra Díaz 69'

4/29/2024

Indian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsMumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mumbai City38%

×Draw29%

Goa33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.07

Mumbai City

1.16

Goa

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

1.25

0.90

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.39

Goa

1.25

allows per match

Mumbai City

0.90

Goa

0.93

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Mumbai City-0.19scores less

Goa-0.05on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

67%

Mumbai City or Goa

71%

Draw or Goa

62%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

16%

Goa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

69%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

32%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

11%

Goa 1+ goals

66%

Goa 2+ goals

29%

Goa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

53%

Goa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 5 matches

Goa away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.39 + Goa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Goa attack 1.25 + Mumbai City defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mumbai City scores more

38%

level

29%

Goa scores more

33%

Mumbai City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. van Nieff

Mumbai City · M

8.0

Match Events

38'

Yoëll van Nieff

38'

Noah Sadaoui

60'

A. Chhetri← R. Borges

60'

B. Singh← S. Fernandes

69'

J. Pereyra Díaz

70'

J. Vojtuš← Y. van Nieff

70'

B. Singh← J. Rane

70'

Borja Herrera← C. McHugh

77'

Jakub Vojtuš

78'

Jorge Pereyra Díaz

79'

B. Fernandes← B. Fernandes

79'

P. Retre← N. Sadaoui

82'

Borja Herrera

83'

L. Chhangte↳ V. Partap Singh

85'

Alberto Noguera← J. Pereyra Díaz

90+6'

H. Ralte← M. Singh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MumbaiGoa

Overview

45%Possession55%

20Total Shots6

8Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots6

5On Target1

5Off Target3

10Blocked2

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

340Total Passes410

253Accurate Passes323

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1