Goa 2–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mumbai City

M. Nemil 45'

S. Tavora 29'

4/18/2026

Indian Super League · Round 9Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Goa38%

×Draw28%

Mumbai City33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.09

Goa

1.19

Mumbai City

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.87

creates per match

1.38

0.80

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Goa

1.87

Mumbai City

1.38

allows per match

Goa

0.80

Mumbai City

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Goa or draw

67%

Goa or Mumbai City

72%

Draw or Mumbai City

62%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

16%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

70%

Goa 2+ goals

33%

Goa 3+ goals

12%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

66%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

30%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

53%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.87 + Mumbai City defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Goa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Goa scores more

38%

level

28%

Mumbai City scores more

33%

Goa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Sangwan

Goa · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

Lalnuntluanga Bawitlung

29'

S. Tavora↳ A. Chhetri

45'

M. Nemil↳ R. Fernandes

47'

Brison Fernandes

52'

Sandesh Jhingan

60'

Z. Zothanpuia← B. Lalnuntluanga

67'

S. Panwar← N. Reis

67'

V. Partap Singh← B. Fernandes

71'

D. Lalhlimpuia← M. Nemil

71'

A. Rabeeh A K← R. Fernandes

72'

P N Noufal

79'

Dejan Drazic

80'

F. R. Nazareth← P. Noufal

80'

A. Chhikara← J. Pereyra

81'

M. Yasir← B. Fernandes

81'

H. Patre← D. Drazic

90+7'

Daniel Lalhlimpuia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoaMumbai

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots15

0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.85

5Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target2

3Off Target6

4Blocked7

4Inside Box5

8Outside Box10

Passing

52%Possession48%

425Total Passes388

333Accurate Passes293

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2