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Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
Pipi 28'
N. Kibabage 1'
S. Tariq 64'
Nassoro 56'
10/2/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar45%
×Draw26%
Mbeya City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.48
Mbeya City
1.14

Mtibwa Sugar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.15
Mbeya City
0.89

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.39
Mbeya City
1.81

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
71%
Mtibwa Sugar or Mbeya City
74%
Draw or Mbeya City
55%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
22%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
77%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
43%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
19%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
68%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
32%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
61%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.15 + Mbeya City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mbeya City attack 0.89 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
45%
level
26%
Mbeya City scores more
29%

Mtibwa Sugar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
N. Kibabage
28'
Pipi
56'
Nassoro
64'
S. Tariq
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mtibwa Sugar 2 – 2 Mbeya City

Mtibwa Sugar and Mbeya City drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 2, 2022.

Goals: N. Kibabage (1'), Pipi (28'), Nassoro (56'), S. Tariq (64').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.