Mbeya City 1–0 Mtibwa Sugar: Result & Stats

Mbeya City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mtibwa Sugar

S. Sabilo 15'

1/22/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 21Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mbeya City47%

×Draw28%

Mtibwa Sugar25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbeya CityExpected goals in this matchMtibwa Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.86

Mbeya City

1.31

Mtibwa Sugar

0.86

Mbeya City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

0.97

creates per match

0.55

1.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Mbeya City

0.97

Mtibwa Sugar

0.55

allows per match

Mbeya City

1.17

Mtibwa Sugar

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw

75%

Mbeya City or Mtibwa Sugar

72%

Draw or Mtibwa Sugar

53%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+

22%

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals

73%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

38%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

14%

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

58%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

21%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

66%

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.97 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.55 + Mbeya City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mbeya City scores more

47%

level

28%

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

25%

Mbeya City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Sabilo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff