Mtibwa Sugar 1–0 Mbeya City: Result & Stats

Mtibwa Sugar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mbeya City

S. Ndemla 16'

5/7/2022

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 22Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar44%

×Draw26%

Mbeya City30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mtibwa SugarExpected goals in this matchMbeya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

Mtibwa Sugar

1.48

Mbeya City

1.17

Mtibwa Sugar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

1.16

creates per match

0.89

1.45

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.16

Mbeya City

0.89

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.45

Mbeya City

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Mbeya City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw

70%

Mtibwa Sugar or Mbeya City

74%

Draw or Mbeya City

56%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

22%

Mbeya City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

77%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

43%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

19%

Mbeya City 1+ goals

69%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

33%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

60%

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.16 + Mbeya City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mbeya City attack 0.89 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

44%

level

26%

Mbeya City scores more

30%

Mtibwa Sugar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Ndemla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff