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MTE 1904 vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

MTE 1904
MTE 1904
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
4/17/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 31Wittmann Antal park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

MTE 190466%
×Draw18%
Gyirmót II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTE 1904
2.44
Gyirmót II
1.10

MTE 1904 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 38 away

creates per match

MTE 1904
2.69
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

MTE 1904
0.60
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

MTE 1904+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTE 1904 ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

MTE 1904 or draw
84%
MTE 1904 or Gyirmót II
82%
Draw or Gyirmót II
34%

Winning margin

MTE 1904 wins by 2+
44%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MTE 1904 1+ goals
91%
MTE 1904 2+ goals
70%
MTE 1904 3+ goals
43%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
67%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
30%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

MTE 1904 (draw refunded)
81%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTE 1904 at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.60 · 48 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTE 1904 attack 2.69 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.44

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + MTE 1904 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

MTE 1904 scores more
66%
level
18%
Gyirmót II scores more
16%

MTE 1904 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "MTE 1904 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: MTE 1904 2–0 Gyirmót II

MTE 1904 beat Gyirmót II 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Wittmann Antal park in Mosonmagyaróvár.