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Gyirmót II vs MTE 1904 — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
1 – 4
MTE 1904
MTE 1904
10/17/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 12Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyirmót II29%
×Draw22%
MTE 190449%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.44
MTE 1904
1.94

MTE 1904 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 47 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
1.71
MTE 1904
2.00

allows per match

Gyirmót II
1.87
MTE 1904
1.17

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
MTE 1904+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

MTE 1904 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
51%
Gyirmót II or MTE 1904
78%
Draw or MTE 1904
71%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
13%
MTE 1904 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
76%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
42%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
18%
MTE 1904 1+ goals
86%
MTE 1904 2+ goals
58%
MTE 1904 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
37%
MTE 1904 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

MTE 1904 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + MTE 1904 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

MTE 1904 attack 2.00 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
29%
level
22%
MTE 1904 scores more
49%

MTE 1904 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MTE 1904 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gyirmót II 1–4 MTE 1904

MTE 1904 beat Gyirmót II 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.