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Gyirmót II vs MTE 1904 — NB III - Northwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
1 – 1
MTE 1904
MTE 1904
7/28/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gyirmót II34%
×Draw23%
MTE 190443%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.56
MTE 1904
1.78

MTE 1904 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
2.23
MTE 1904
1.50

allows per match

Gyirmót II
2.07
MTE 1904
0.90

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
MTE 1904+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

MTE 1904 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
57%
Gyirmót II or MTE 1904
77%
Draw or MTE 1904
66%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
16%
MTE 1904 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
79%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
46%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
21%
MTE 1904 1+ goals
83%
MTE 1904 2+ goals
53%
MTE 1904 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
44%
MTE 1904 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

MTE 1904 away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 2.23 + MTE 1904 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

MTE 1904 attack 1.50 + Gyirmót II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
34%
level
23%
MTE 1904 scores more
43%

MTE 1904 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "MTE 1904 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyirmót II vs MTE 1904

Gyirmót II and MTE 1904 drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.