MSV Duisburg 2–1 Preussen Munster: Result & Stats

MSV Duisburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Preussen Munster

5/3/2015

League #80 · Round 35Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

MSV Duisburg51%

×Draw27%

Preussen Munster22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchPreussen Munster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.87

MSV Duisburg

1.46

Preussen Munster

0.87

MSV Duisburg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

1.18

creates per match

0.83

0.91

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

MSV Duisburg

1.18

Preussen Munster

0.83

allows per match

MSV Duisburg

0.91

Preussen Munster

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg ↓

Preussen Munster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg or draw

78%

MSV Duisburg or Preussen Munster

73%

Draw or Preussen Munster

49%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+

26%

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals

77%

MSV Duisburg 2+ goals

43%

MSV Duisburg 3+ goals

18%

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

58%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

22%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

69%

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg attack 1.18 + Preussen Munster defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Preussen Munster attack 0.83 + MSV Duisburg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

MSV Duisburg scores more

51%

level

27%

Preussen Munster scores more

22%

MSV Duisburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "MSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff