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Mouloudia Oujda vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola 2 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
3/15/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Honneur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda34%
×Draw31%
Moghreb Tetouan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.00
Moghreb Tetouan
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.10
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
0.90
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
65%
Mouloudia Oujda or Moghreb Tetouan
69%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
66%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
13%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
63%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
26%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
8%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
64%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
27%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
50%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.13 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
34%
level
31%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
35%

Moghreb Tetouan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Moghreb Tetouan

Moghreb Tetouan beat Mouloudia Oujda 3-1 in Botola 2 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Honneur Stadium in Oujda.