Mouloudia Oujda 2–1 Moghreb Tetouan: Result & Stats

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moghreb Tetouan

6/23/2023

Botola Pro · Round 30Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%

×Draw28%

Moghreb Tetouan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchMoghreb Tetouan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.03

Mouloudia Oujda

1.26

Moghreb Tetouan

1.03

Mouloudia Oujda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

1.17

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Moghreb Tetouan

0.89

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Moghreb Tetouan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

70%

Mouloudia Oujda or Moghreb Tetouan

72%

Draw or Moghreb Tetouan

58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

19%

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

72%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

36%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

13%

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

64%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

28%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

58%

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

42%

level

28%

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

30%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff