Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moghreb Tetouan vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
11/10/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 9Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan41%
×Draw29%
Mouloudia Oujda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.18
Mouloudia Oujda
0.96

Moghreb Tetouan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
70%
Moghreb Tetouan or Mouloudia Oujda
71%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
59%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
18%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
69%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
33%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
12%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
62%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
25%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
58%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
41%
level
29%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
30%

Moghreb Tetouan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Mouloudia Oujda

Moghreb Tetouan and Mouloudia Oujda drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.