Motor Lublin vs Arka Gdynia — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Motor Lublin47%
Arka Gdynia29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Motor Lublin creates 30% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Motor Lublin ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches
Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.81 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Motor Lublin attack 1.52 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67
Arka Gdynia attack 0.93 + Motor Lublin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Motor Lublin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia GdanskMotor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast GliwiceArka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Motor Lublin host Arka Gdynia on Sunday, 20 July 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Ekstraklasa: Motor Lublin 1–0 Arka Gdynia
Motor Lublin beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on July 20, 2025.
Goals: M. Ndiaye (50').
Motor Lublin controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 9.
The match was played at Motor Lublin Arena in Lublin.