Arka Gdynia 1–0 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motor Lublin

L. Perea 82'

12/6/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 18Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia45%

×Draw24%

Motor Lublin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.39

Arka Gdynia

1.70

Motor Lublin

1.39

Arka Gdynia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

1.59

creates per match

1.34

1.44

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Motor Lublin

1.34

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Motor Lublin

1.80

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Motor Lublin+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

68%

Arka Gdynia or Motor Lublin

76%

Draw or Motor Lublin

55%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

24%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

82%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

51%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

24%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

75%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

40%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

59%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Motor Lublin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Motor Lublin attack 1.34 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

45%

level

24%

Motor Lublin scores more

32%

Arka Gdynia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Gaprindashvili

Arka Gdynia · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

Eduardo Espiau

29'

F. Wojcik← P. Stolarski

44'

Filip Luberecki

45+1'

Kike HermosoGoal cancelled

57'

Bartosz Wolski

65'

F. Haxha← Fabio Ronaldo

66'

B. van Hoeven← M. Krol

74'

L. Perea← T. Gaprindashvili

74'

M. Predenkiewicz← A. Sidibe

74'

P. Szysz← N. Rusyn

78'

M. Bartos← S. Samper

78'

J. Labojko← A. Najemski

80'

Mathieu Scalet

82'

L. Perea

86'

Percan← E. D. Espiau Hernandez

87'

Kamil Jakubczyk

88'

J. Oliveira← S. Kerk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArkaMotor

Overview

40%Possession60%

17Total Shots13

2.91Expected Goals (xG)0.76

6Corners5

13Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots13

7On Target2

6Off Target6

4Blocked5

15Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

278Total Passes443

217Accurate Passes371

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1