Arka Gdynia vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Arka Gdynia40%
Motor Lublin32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arka Gdynia creates 15% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arka Gdynia ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches
Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30
Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Arka Gdynia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Arka Gdynia host Motor Lublin on Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2026/2027 season.
I Liga: Arka Gdynia 1–2 Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin beat Arka Gdynia 2-1 in I Liga on June 2, 2024.
Goals: O. Kobacki (13'), B. Wolski (87'), M. Ndiaye (90+3').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.