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Khatlon vs Dushanbe-83 — Vysshaya Liga 2020

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 0
Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
U. Sharipov 70'
6/17/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Khatlon70%
×Draw19%
Dushanbe-8311%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
2.13
Dushanbe-83
0.70

Khatlon creates 204% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 4 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.52
Dushanbe-83
0.50

allows per match

Khatlon
0.90
Dushanbe-83
2.75

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Dushanbe-83+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Dushanbe-83 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
89%
Khatlon or Dushanbe-83
81%
Draw or Dushanbe-83
30%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
46%
Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
88%
Khatlon 2+ goals
63%
Khatlon 3+ goals
35%
Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
50%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
16%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
86%
Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

Dushanbe-83 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.52 + Dushanbe-83 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.50 + Khatlon defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Khatlon scores more
70%
level
19%
Dushanbe-83 scores more
11%

Khatlon at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
U. Sharipov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Dushanbe-83

Khatlon beat Dushanbe-83 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 17, 2020.

Goals: U. Sharipov (70').

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.