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Dushanbe-83 vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
FT
1 – 1
Khatlon
Khatlon
A. Jones 77'
K. Saidov 64' (pen)
9/7/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dushanbe-8339%
×Draw34%
Khatlon27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dushanbe-83
0.93
Khatlon
0.71

Dushanbe-83 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dushanbe-83
0.67
Khatlon
1.08

allows per match

Dushanbe-83
0.33
Khatlon
1.19

finishing

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dushanbe-83 ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dushanbe-83 or draw
73%
Dushanbe-83 or Khatlon
66%
Draw or Khatlon
61%

Winning margin

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
14%
Khatlon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
61%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
24%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
7%
Khatlon 1+ goals
51%
Khatlon 2+ goals
16%
Khatlon 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
59%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dushanbe-83 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.67 + Khatlon defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

Khatlon attack 1.08 + Dushanbe-83 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dushanbe-83 scores more
39%
level
34%
Khatlon scores more
27%

Dushanbe-83 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dushanbe-83 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
K. SaidovPenalty
75'
J. Gaten
75'
J. Gaten
77'
A. Jones

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dushanbe-83 vs Khatlon

Dushanbe-83 and Khatlon drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on September 7, 2020.

Goals: K. Saidov (64' pen), A. Jones (77').

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat in Vahdat.