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Khatlon vs Dushanbe-83 — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
3 – 1
Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
11/24/2021Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 26Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Khatlon69%
×Draw19%
Dushanbe-8312%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
2.16
Dushanbe-83
0.77

Khatlon creates 181% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 5 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.31
Dushanbe-83
0.60

allows per match

Khatlon
0.94
Dushanbe-83
3.00

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Dushanbe-83+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Dushanbe-83 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
88%
Khatlon or Dushanbe-83
81%
Draw or Dushanbe-83
31%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
45%
Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
88%
Khatlon 2+ goals
63%
Khatlon 3+ goals
36%
Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
54%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
18%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
85%
Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Dushanbe-83 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Dushanbe-83 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.60 + Khatlon defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Khatlon scores more
69%
level
19%
Dushanbe-83 scores more
12%

Khatlon at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khatlon 3–1 Dushanbe-83

Khatlon beat Dushanbe-83 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on November 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.