Morecambe 2–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Accrington ST

J. Weir 43'

L. Shaw 34'

12/29/2022

League One · Round 24Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe45%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

Morecambe

1.52

Accrington ST

1.19

Morecambe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 107 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

1.43

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Morecambe

1.37

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Morecambe

1.43

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

70%

Morecambe or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

55%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

22%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

78%

Morecambe 2+ goals

45%

Morecambe 3+ goals

20%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

70%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

33%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

60%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Morecambe scores more

45%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

30%

Morecambe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Ripley

Morecambe · G

8.7

Match Events

34'

L. Shaw↳ C. Stockton

41'

A. Mayor← M. Melbourne

43'

J. Weir↳ R. Cooney

57'

Joe Pritchard

63'

J. Woods← S. Whalley

63'

L. Adekoya← R. Astley

65'

Jacob Bedeau

72'

A. Gnahoua← K. Phillips

73'

S. McConville← R. Longelo-Mbule

80'

C. Watts← J. Bedeau

88'

D. Martin← L. Coyle

90+4'

Harvey Rodgers

90'

J. Nolan← J. Pritchard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeAccrington

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots21

3Corners8

18Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots21

4On Target8

1Off Target5

4Blocked8

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box11

Passing

38%Possession62%

250Total Passes392

145Accurate Passes292

58%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2