Accrington ST 1–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

L. Shipley 89'

C. Brown 62'

N. Khumbeni 55'

3/29/2024

League Two · Round 41Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Accrington ST44%

×Draw25%

Morecambe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.26

Accrington ST

1.54

Morecambe

1.26

Accrington ST creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

1.35

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

69%

Accrington ST or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

22%

Morecambe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

79%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

45%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

72%

Morecambe 2+ goals

36%

Morecambe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

58%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more

44%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

31%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Nolan

Accrington ST · M

8.0

Match Events

47'

Nelson Khumbeni

55'

N. Khumbeni↳ G. Garner

60'

62'

72'

75'

75'

L. Shipley← K. Mellor

75'

A. Henderson← J. Pritchard

75'

J. Woods← J. Bickerstaff

78'

Y. Songo'o← C. Stokes

87'

87'

89'

89'

90+9'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonMorecambe

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots11

8Corners3

18Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target5

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

350Total Passes282

262Accurate Passes191

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2