Accrington ST 2–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

D. Costelloe 45+1', 36' (pen)

B. Tollitt 86'

10/5/2024

League Two · Round 10Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Accrington ST44%

×Draw25%

Morecambe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.26

Accrington ST

1.54

Morecambe

1.26

Accrington ST creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

1.35

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

69%

Accrington ST or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

22%

Morecambe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

79%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

45%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

72%

Morecambe 2+ goals

36%

Morecambe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

58%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more

44%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

31%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Costelloe

Accrington ST · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

D. CostelloePenalty

45+1'

D. Costelloe↳ K. Mooney

51'

Farrend Rawson

58'

H. Macadam← D. Tutonda

58'

H. Hope← Y. Songoo

74'

Dara Costelloe

76'

J. Slew← C. Jones

83'

C. Brown← L. Hendrie

86'

B. Tollitt

90+5'

Connor O'Brien

90'

T. Walton← D. Costelloe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonMorecambe

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots8

5Corners7

15Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target2

6Off Target2

3Blocked4

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

314Total Passes255

170Accurate Passes115

54%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2