Montpellier 1–2 Lyon: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lyon

E. Wahi 70'

A. Lacazette 90'

H. Aouar 33'

10/22/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier41%

×Draw23%

Lyon36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchLyon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.54

Montpellier

1.66

Lyon

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 35 away

1.92

creates per match

1.37

1.72

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Lyon

1.37

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Lyon

1.40

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Lyon+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Lyon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

64%

Montpellier or Lyon

77%

Draw or Lyon

59%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

21%

Lyon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

81%

Montpellier 2+ goals

49%

Montpellier 3+ goals

23%

Lyon 1+ goals

79%

Lyon 2+ goals

45%

Lyon 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

53%

Lyon (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Lyon away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Lyon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lyon attack 1.37 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montpellier scores more

41%

level

23%

Lyon scores more

36%

Montpellier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Lacazette

Lyon · F

9.2

Match Events

7'

Houssem Aouar

33'

H. Aouar↳ A. Lacazette

43'

B. Kamara← J. Omlin

49'

Thiago Mendes

55'

A. Souquet← E. Tchato

55'

A. Nordin← F. Maouassa

59'

Teji Savanier

59'

D. Da Silva← J. Boateng

64'

J. Reine-Adélaïde← H. Aouar

64'

K. Toko-Ekambi← M. Dembélé

70'

E. Wahi↳ J. Ferri

74'

74'

74'

82'

82'

90'

A. Lacazette↳ M. Caqueret

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierLyon

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots21

4Corners7

9Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots21

4On Target10

5Off Target2

1Blocked9

6Inside Box16

4Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

322Total Passes532

243Accurate Passes460

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3