Lyon 1–2 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lyon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Montpellier

Lucas Paquetá 45+2'

S. Wahi 65'

T. Savanier 20'

2/13/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 25Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lyon48%

×Draw23%

Montpellier29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyonExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.35

Lyon

1.80

Montpellier

1.35

Lyon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 6 away

2.01

creates per match

1.48

1.22

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lyon

2.01

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lyon

1.22

Montpellier

1.60

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lyon-0.10scores less

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lyon or draw

71%

Lyon or Montpellier

77%

Draw or Montpellier

52%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+

26%

Montpellier wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals

83%

Lyon 2+ goals

54%

Lyon 3+ goals

27%

Montpellier 1+ goals

74%

Montpellier 2+ goals

39%

Montpellier 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)

62%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 35 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.01 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lyon defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyon scores more

48%

level

23%

Montpellier scores more

29%

Lyon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Omlin

Montpellier · G

8.0

Match Events

20'

T. Savanier↳ A. Delort

26'

45+2'

46'

49'

62'

M. De Sciglio← M. Cornet

62'

Bruno Guimarães← T. Kadewere

65'

S. Wahi

68'

N. Cozza← M. Ristić

72'

M. Cherki← Lucas Paquetá

72'

I. Slimani← H. Aouar

75'

D. Le Tallec← F. Mollet

80'

P. Škuletić← G. Laborde

80'

Pedro Mendes← S. Mavididi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonMontpellier

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots12

6Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots12

8On Target5

7Off Target5

9Blocked2

21Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

475Total Passes394

393Accurate Passes297

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1