Lyon 5–2 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lyon

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Montpellier

H. Aouar 90+2', 63'

K. Toko-Ekambi 68'

J. Omlin 43' (OG)

M. Dembélé 26'

T. Savanier 45+4' (pen)

E. Wahi 45+1'

4/23/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 34Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lyon48%

×Draw23%

Montpellier29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyonExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.35

Lyon

1.80

Montpellier

1.35

Lyon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 6 away

2.01

creates per match

1.48

1.22

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lyon

2.01

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lyon

1.22

Montpellier

1.60

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lyon-0.10scores less

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lyon or draw

71%

Lyon or Montpellier

77%

Draw or Montpellier

52%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+

26%

Montpellier wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals

83%

Lyon 2+ goals

54%

Lyon 3+ goals

27%

Montpellier 1+ goals

74%

Montpellier 2+ goals

39%

Montpellier 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)

62%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 35 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.01 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lyon defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyon scores more

48%

level

23%

Montpellier scores more

29%

Lyon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Aouar

Lyon · M

8.7

Match Events

26'

M. Dembélé

28'

Ambroise Oyongo

36'

J. Boateng← D. Da Silva

42'

Nicolas Cozza

43'

J. OmlinOwn goal

45+1'

E. Wahi↳ T. Savanier

45+4'

T. SavanierPenalty

63'

H. Aouar↳ Thiago Mendes

64'

B. Barcola← Tetê

66'

S. Mavididi← V. Germain

68'

K. Toko-Ekambi↳ Lucas Paquetá

75'

Jérôme Boateng

75'

F. Mollet← R. Cabella

75'

M. Esteve← A. Oyongo

75'

L. Leroy← J. Chotard

85'

J. Reine-Adélaïde← Lucas Paquetá

85'

N. Gioacchini← A. Souquet

89'

Malo Gusto

90+2'

H. Aouar↳ K. Toko-Ekambi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonMontpellier

Overview

52%Possession48%

27Total Shots11

8Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

27Total Shots11

13On Target7

4Off Target3

10Blocked1

19Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

523Total Passes481

455Accurate Passes420

87%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0