Montpellier 1–3 Lille: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lille

E. Wahi 20'

J. David 90+5', 41'

A. Gomes 57'

9/4/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier39%

×Draw24%

Lille37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchLille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.57

Montpellier

1.62

Lille

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 36 away

1.92

creates per match

1.42

1.72

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Lille

1.42

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Lille

1.32

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Lille-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Lille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

63%

Montpellier or Lille

76%

Draw or Lille

61%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

20%

Lille wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

80%

Montpellier 2+ goals

48%

Montpellier 3+ goals

22%

Lille 1+ goals

79%

Lille 2+ goals

46%

Lille 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

51%

Lille (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Lille away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Lille defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lille attack 1.42 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montpellier scores more

39%

level

24%

Lille scores more

37%

Montpellier at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. David

Lille · F

8.7

Match Events

16'

Tiago Djaló

20'

E. Wahi↳ J. Ferri

35'

A. Ounas← E. Zhegrova

41'

J. David↳ R. Cabella

45+3'

Valère Germain

57'

A. Gomes↳ R. Cabella

58'

F. Maouassa← A. Nordin

58'

E. Tchato← L. Leroy

59'

André Gomes← R. Cabella

75'

A. Souquet← M. Sakho

75'

K. Fayad← J. Ferri

80'

Adam Ounas

82'

B. Makouana← J. Chotard

86'

André Gomes

90+4'

Jonathan David

90+5'

J. David↳ J. Bamba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierLille

Overview

24%Possession76%

4Total Shots26

1Corners9

8Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots26

2On Target8

0Off Target9

2Blocked9

2Inside Box14

2Outside Box12

Passing

24%Possession76%

216Total Passes681

138Accurate Passes603

64%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3