Lille 2–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lille

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montpellier

R. Cabella 72'

J. David 70'

I. Sylla 24'

4/16/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 31Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lille50%

×Draw24%

Montpellier26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LilleExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Lille

1.75

Montpellier

1.21

Lille creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

1.41

1.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lille

1.76

Montpellier

1.41

allows per match

Lille

1.00

Montpellier

1.74

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.79scores more than expected

finishing

Lille-0.05on par

Montpellier+0.79scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lille or draw

74%

Lille or Montpellier

76%

Draw or Montpellier

50%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+

27%

Montpellier wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals

83%

Lille 2+ goals

52%

Lille 3+ goals

25%

Montpellier 1+ goals

70%

Montpellier 2+ goals

34%

Montpellier 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)

65%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.74 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.76 + Montpellier defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Montpellier attack 1.41 + Lille defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lille scores more

50%

level

24%

Montpellier scores more

26%

Lille at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Cabella

Lille · M

8.9

Match Events

24'

I. Sylla↳ E. Wahi

35'

Alexsandro Ribeiro

43'

Elye Wahi

46'

B. Diakité← T. Weah

46'

Ismaily← G. Gudmundsson

46'

E. Zhegrova← J. Bamba

51'

Christopher Jullien

67'

S. Mavididi← E. Wahi

67'

F. Maouassa← W. Khazri

70'

J. David↳ R. Cabella

72'

R. Cabella

80'

L. Leroy← J. Chotard

80'

V. Germain← A. Nordin

86'

J. Martin← A. Gomes

88'

K. Fayad← T. Savanier

90+3'

Boubakar Kouyaté

90'

L. Yoro← R. Cabella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LilleMontpellier

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots4

2.11Expected Goals (xG)0.42

8Corners4

15Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots4

7On Target1

4Off Target1

6Blocked2

8Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

578Total Passes257

515Accurate Passes192

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3