Lille 2–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lille

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Montpellier

J. David 56'

Y. Yazıcı 45+1'

G. Laborde 45+4'

8/29/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lille48%

×Draw24%

Montpellier28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LilleExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.24

Lille

1.68

Montpellier

1.24

Lille creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

1.48

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lille

1.76

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lille

1.00

Montpellier

1.60

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lille-0.05on par

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lille or draw

72%

Lille or Montpellier

76%

Draw or Montpellier

52%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+

25%

Montpellier wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals

81%

Lille 2+ goals

50%

Lille 3+ goals

24%

Montpellier 1+ goals

71%

Montpellier 2+ goals

35%

Montpellier 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)

63%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.76 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lille defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lille scores more

48%

level

24%

Montpellier scores more

28%

Lille at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Yazıcı

Lille · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

25'

25'

33'

34'

43'

45+1'

Y. Yazıcı↳ José Fonte

45+4'

56'

56'

59'

70'

73'

73'

78'

D. Bradarić← A. Gomes

79'

A. Souquet← N. Cozza

79'

M. Ristić← J. Chotard

82'

83'

83'

83'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LilleMontpellier

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots6

3Corners4

15Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots6

4On Target2

9Off Target1

2Blocked3

10Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

347Total Passes428

264Accurate Passes323

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls19

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Lille vs Montpellier

Lille beat Montpellier 2-1 in Ligue 1 on August 29, 2021.

Goals: Y. Yazıcı (45+1'), G. Laborde (45+4'), J. David (56').

Montpellier controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq.

Lille vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lille vs Montpellier