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Montpellier vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Montpellier
Montpellier
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Laval
Laval
N. Pays 90'
T. Sainte-Luce 88'
3/13/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier46%
×Draw26%
Laval28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier
1.45
Laval
1.06

Montpellier creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Montpellier
1.59
Laval
0.94

allows per match

Montpellier
1.18
Laval
1.30

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw
72%
Montpellier or Laval
74%
Draw or Laval
54%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+
23%
Laval wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals
77%
Montpellier 2+ goals
42%
Montpellier 3+ goals
18%
Laval 1+ goals
65%
Laval 2+ goals
29%
Laval 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)
62%
Laval (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Laval attack 0.94 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montpellier scores more
46%
level
26%
Laval scores more
28%

Montpellier at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
T. Sainte-LuceMontpellierMontpellier · D
8.5

Match Events

41'
William Bianda
70'
Titouan Thomas
70'
A. Gueguin← K. Fayad
73'
M. Houdayer← D. Mbayo
74'
N. Vidal-Cartoux← Y. Mouanga
83'
W. Benard← T. Thomas
83'
E. Montet← M. Sellouki
85'
E. Molebe← Y. Issoufou
88'
T. Sainte-Luce↳ E. Molebe
90+1'
E. Maddy← C. Mandouki
90'
N. Pays

Possession

58%Montpellier

Shots

17Montpellier

Pass accuracy

52%Montpellier

Statistics

MontpellierLaval
Overview
58%Possession42%
17Total Shots7
5Corners3
23Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots7
7On Target1
5Off Target5
5Blocked1
13Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
478Total Passes346
414Accurate Passes272
87%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
23Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Laval

Montpellier beat Laval 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 13, 2026.

Goals: T. Sainte-Luce (88'), N. Pays (90').

Montpellier controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.