Laval 0–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Laval

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montpellier

A. Mendy 26'

9/27/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Laval31%

×Draw32%

Montpellier37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LavalExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.01

Laval

0.90

Montpellier

1.01

Montpellier creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

0.82

1.20

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Laval

1.15

Montpellier

0.82

allows per match

Laval

1.20

Montpellier

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laval+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Laval or draw

63%

Laval or Montpellier

68%

Draw or Montpellier

69%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+

11%

Montpellier wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals

59%

Laval 2+ goals

23%

Laval 3+ goals

6%

Montpellier 1+ goals

64%

Montpellier 2+ goals

27%

Montpellier 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)

46%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.15 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.90

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Laval defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Laval scores more

31%

level

32%

Montpellier scores more

37%

Montpellier at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

S. Ngapandouetnbu

Montpellier · G

8.3

Match Events

26'

A. Mendy↳ T. Sainte-Luce

27'

Mamadou Samassa

31'

Naoufel El Hannach

46'

L. Mincarelli← T. Sainte-Luce

56'

Simon Ngapandouetnbu

63'

Nicolas Pays

68'

E. Clavreul← M. Sellouki

68'

T. Savanier← A. Mendy

75'

78'

83'

83'

84'

M. Aristide← J. Maggiotti

88'

I. Mohamed← N. El Hannach

88'

F. Mahboub← N. Pays

90+5'

Lucas Mincarelli Davin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LavalMontpellier

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots11

12Corners5

14Fouls21

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

517Total Passes298

434Accurate Passes231

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls21

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1