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Laval vs Montpellier — Coupe de la Ligue 2018

Laval
Laval
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Montpellier
Montpellier
K. Bérigaud 48'
S. Mounié 6'
10/25/2016Coupe de la LigueCoupe de la Ligue · 16th FinalsStade Francis-Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Laval16%
×Draw29%
Montpellier55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
0.54
Montpellier
1.29

Montpellier creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Laval
0.75
Montpellier
1.33

allows per match

Laval
1.25
Montpellier
0.33

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–121%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Laval or draw
45%
Laval or Montpellier
71%
Draw or Montpellier
84%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
4%
Montpellier wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
42%
Laval 2+ goals
10%
Laval 3+ goals
2%
Montpellier 1+ goals
72%
Montpellier 2+ goals
37%
Montpellier 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
22%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 0.75 + Montpellier defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Montpellier attack 1.33 + Laval defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Laval scores more
16%
level
29%
Montpellier scores more
55%

Montpellier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
S. Mounié
17'
Adrien Monfray
36'
Kévin Bérigaud
48'
K. Bérigaud
63'
D. Saint-Louis← G. Etinof
64'
R. Bayard← H. Alla
67'
M. Coutadeur← M. Dembélé
70'
J. Roussillon← M. Poaty
72'
Nicolas Saint-Ruf
76'
S. Sessègnon← S. Mounié
83'
M. Sanson← J. Marveaux

Possession

48%Laval

Shots

8Laval

Statistics

LavalMontpellier
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots7
6Corners2
9Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots7
2On Target3
6Off Target4
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Laval vs Montpellier

Montpellier beat Laval 2-0 in Coupe de la Ligue on October 25, 2016.

Goals: S. Mounié (6'), K. Bérigaud (48').

Montpellier controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Francis-Le Basser in Laval.