Montpellier 5–0 Angers: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Angers

E. Wahi 73'

T. Savanier 51', 25' (pen)

F. Maouassa 45+3'

W. Khazri 2'

3/5/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier52%

×Draw23%

Angers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchAngers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

Montpellier

1.89

Angers

1.27

Montpellier creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.92

creates per match

0.82

1.72

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Angers

0.82

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Angers

1.85

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Angers-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Angers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

74%

Montpellier or Angers

77%

Draw or Angers

48%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

29%

Angers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

85%

Montpellier 2+ goals

56%

Montpellier 3+ goals

29%

Angers 1+ goals

72%

Angers 2+ goals

36%

Angers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

67%

Angers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Angers away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.85 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Angers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Angers attack 0.82 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montpellier scores more

52%

level

23%

Angers scores more

26%

Montpellier at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Savanier

Montpellier · M

8.6

Match Events

2'

W. Khazri↳ F. Maouassa

8'

Boubakar Kouyaté

25'

T. SavanierPenalty

33'

Ousmane Camara

45+3'

F. Maouassa↳ A. Nordin

46'

H. Šabanović← I. Chetti

46'

M. Blažič← O. Camara

46'

F. El Melali← I. Niane

51'

T. Savanier↳ I. Sylla

57'

57'

57'

61'

62'

S. Mavididi← F. Maouassa

67'

P. Capelle← H. Abdelli

71'

K. Fayad← J. Ferri

71'

M. Sakho← K. Kouyaté

72'

V. Germain← A. Nordin

73'

E. Wahi↳ I. Sylla

77'

A. Hunou← A. Sima

82'

Miha Blažič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierAngers

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots10

2.88Expected Goals (xG)0.91

6Corners5

10Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots10

8On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked0

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

516Total Passes357

446Accurate Passes296

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Angers

Montpellier beat Angers 5-0 in Ligue 1 on March 5, 2023.

Goals: W. Khazri (2'), T. Savanier (25' pen, 51'), F. Maouassa (45+3'), E. Wahi (73').

Montpellier controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Angers — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Angers