Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Angers vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Angers
Angers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
Mathias Lage 67'
T. Mangani 45' (pen)
5/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 38Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Angers35%
×Draw25%
Montpellier40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.35
Montpellier
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

creates per match

Angers
0.97
Montpellier
1.41

allows per match

Angers
1.50
Montpellier
1.74

finishing

Angers+0.03on par
Montpellier+0.79scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Angers or draw
60%
Angers or Montpellier
75%
Draw or Montpellier
65%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
16%
Montpellier wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
74%
Angers 2+ goals
39%
Angers 3+ goals
15%
Montpellier 1+ goals
77%
Montpellier 2+ goals
43%
Montpellier 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
47%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.74 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 0.97 + Montpellier defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.35

Montpellier attack 1.41 + Angers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Angers scores more
35%
level
25%
Montpellier scores more
40%

Montpellier at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
T. ManganiAngersAngers · M
8.2

Match Events

30'
Béni Makouana
44'
Ambroise Oyongo
45'
T. ManganiPenalty
54'
Valère Germain
59'
Jordan Ferri
62'
A. Ounahi← T. Mangani
63'
B. Mendy← P. Capelle
63'
M. Cho← S. Bahoken
64'
N. Gioacchini← S. Delaye
65'
S. Sambia← A. Souquet
67'
Mathias Lage↳ B. Mendy
71'
Angelo Fulgini
75'
Pedro Mendes← N. Cozza
82'
Y. Guermouche← F. Mollet
87'
A. Bamba← Mathias Lage
89'
I. Traoré← R. Thomas

Possession

52%Angers

Shots

19Angers

Pass accuracy

51%Angers

Statistics

AngersMontpellier
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots14
4Corners3
17Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots14
3On Target1
11Off Target9
5Blocked4
14Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
517Total Passes474
449Accurate Passes392
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

Ligue 1: Angers 2–0 Montpellier

Angers beat Montpellier 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: T. Mangani (45' pen), Mathias Lage (67').

Angers controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.